IMPROVING PRECISION BY ADJUSTING FOR BASELINE VARIABLES IN RANDOMIZED TRIALS WITH BINARY OUTCOMES, WITHOUT REGRESSION MODEL ASSUMPTIONS

In randomized clinical trials with baseline variables that are prognostic for the primary outcome, there is potential to improve precision and reduce sample size by appropriately adjusting for these variables. A major challenge is that there are multiple statistical methods to adjust for baseline variables, but little guidance on which is best to use in a given context. The choice of method can have important consequences. For example, one commonly used method leads to uninterpretable estimates if there is any treatment effect heterogeneity, which would jeopardize the validity of trial conclusions. We give practical guidance on how to avoid this problem, while retaining the advantages of covariate adjustment. This can be achieved by using simple (but less well-known) standardization methods from the recent statistics literature. We discuss these methods and give software in R and Stata implementing them. A data example from a recent stroke trial is used to illustrate these methods

Motor recovery beginning 23 years after ischemic stroke

It is widely believed that most stroke recovery occurs within 6 mo, with little benefit of physiotherapy or other modalities beyond 1 yr. We report a remarkable case of stroke recovery beginning 23 yr after a severe stroke due to embolization from the innominate artery and subclavian artery, resulting from compression of the right subclavian artery by a cervical rib. The patient had a large right frontoparietal infarction with severe left hemiparesis and a totally nonfunctional spastic left hand. He experienced some recovery of hand function that began 23 yr after the stroke, 1 yr after he took up regular swimming. As a result, intensive physiotherapy was initiated, with repetitive large muscle movement and a spring-loaded mechanical orthosis that provides resistance to finger flexors and supports finger extensors. Within 2 yr, he could pick up coins with the previously useless left hand. Functional MRI studies document widespread distribution of the recovery in both hemispheres. This case provides impetus not only to more intensive and prolonged physiotherapy, but also to treatment with emerging modalities such as stem cell therapy and exosome and microRNA therapies. NEW & NOTEWORTHY Widespread bilateral activation of both sides of the cerebrum and cerebellum are demonstrated on functional MRI after motor recovery of a completely nonfunctional left hand that began 23 yr after a severe stroke. This suggests that the generally accepted window of recovery beyond which further therapy is not indicated should be entirely reconsidered. Physiotherapy and new modalities in development might be indicated long after a stroke

Adaptive, Group Sequential Designs that Balance the Benefits and Risks of Wider Inclusion Criteria

We propose a new class of adaptive randomized trial designs aimed at gaining the advantages of wider generalizability and faster recruitment, while mitigating the risks of including a population for which there is greater a priori uncertainty. Our designs use adaptive enrichment, i.e., they have preplanned decision rules for modifying enrollment criteria based on data accrued at interim analyses. For example, enrollment can be restricted if the participants from predefined subpopulations are not benefiting from the new treatment. To the best of our knowledge, our designs are the first adaptive enrichment designs to have all of the following features: the multiple testing procedure fully leverages the correlation among statistics for different populations; the familywise Type I error rate is strongly controlled; for outcomes that are binary, normally distributed, or Poisson distributed, the decision rule and multiple testing procedure are functions of the data only through minimal sufficient statistics. The advantage of relying solely on minimal sufficient statistics is that not doing so can lead to losses in power. Our designs incorporate standard group sequential boundaries for each population of interest; this may be helpful in communicating our designs, since many clinical investigators are familiar with such boundaries, which can be summarized succinctly in a single table or graph. We demonstrate these adaptive designs in the context of a Phase III trial of a new treatment for stroke, and provide user-friendly, free software implementing these designs

Constructing a Confidence Interval for the Fraction Who Benefit from Treatment, Using Randomized Trial Data

The fraction who benefit from treatment is the proportion of patients whose potential outcome under treatment is better than that under control. Inference on this parameter is challenging since it is only partially identifiable, even in our context of a randomized trial. We propose a new method for constructing a confidence interval for the fraction, when the outcome is ordinal or binary. Our confidence interval procedure is pointwise consistent. It does not require any assumptions about the joint distribution of the potential outcomes, although it has the flexibility to incorporate various user-defined assumptions. Unlike existing confidence interval methods for partially identifiable parameters (such as m-out-of-n bootstrap and subsampling), our method does not require selection of m or the subsample size. It is based on a stochastic optimization technique involving a second order, asymptotic approximation that, to the best of our knowledge, has not been applied to biomedical studies. This approximation leads to statistics that are solutions to quadratic programs, which can be computed efficiently using optimization tools. In simulation, our method attains the nominal coverage probability or higher, and can have substantially narrower average width than m-out-of-n bootstrap. We apply it to a trial of a new intervention for stroke

Oedema extension distance in intracerebral haemorrhage: Association with baseline characteristics and long-term outcome

Introduction: Oedema extension distance is a derived parameter that may reduce sample size requirements to demonstrate reduction in perihaematomal oedema in early phase acute intracerebral haemorrhage trials. We aimed to identify baseline predictors of oedema extension distance and its association with clinical outcomes. Patients and methods: Using Virtual International Stroke Trials Archive-Intracerebral Haemorrhage, first Intensive Blood Pressure Reduction in Acute Cerebral Hemorrhage Trial, and Minimally Invasive Surgery and rtPA for Intracerebral Hemorrhage Evacuation II datasets, we calculated oedema extension distance at baseline and at 72 h measured using computed tomography. Using linear regression, we tested for associations between baseline characteristics and oedema extension distance at 72 h. Ordinal regression (underlying assumptions validated) was used to test for associations between oedema extension distance at baseline and 72 h and oedema extension distance change between baseline and 72 h, and modified Rankin scale scores at 90 days, adjusted for baseline and 72 h prognostic factors. Results: There were 1028 intracerebral haemorrhage cases with outcome data for analyses. Mean (standard deviation, SD) oedema extension distance at 72 h was 0.54 (0.26) cm, and mean oedema extension distance difference from baseline (EED72–0) was 0.24 (0.18) cm. Oedema extension distance at 72 h was greater with increasing baseline haematoma volume and baseline oedema extension distance. Increasing age, lobar haemorrhage, and intraventricular haemorrhage were independently associated with EED72–0. In multifactorial ordinal regression analysis, EED72–0 was associated with worse modified Rankin scale scores at 90 days (odds ratio 1.96, 95% confidence interval 1.00–3.82). Discussion: Increase in oedema extension distance over 72 h is independently associated with decreasing functional outcome at 90 days. Oedema extension distance may be a useful surrogate outcome measure in early phase trials of anti-oedema or anti-inflammatory treatments in intracerebral haemorrhage

Early inflammatory cytokine expression in cerebrospinal fluid of patients with spontaneous intraventricular hemorrhage

We investigated cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) expression of inflammatory cytokines and their relationship with spontaneous intracerebral and intraventricular hemorrhage (ICH, IVH) and perihematomal edema (PHE) volumes in patients with acute IVH. Twenty-eight adults with IVH requiring external ventricular drainage for obstructive hydrocephalus had cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) collected for up to 10 days and had levels of interleukin-1α (IL-1α), IL-1β, IL-6, IL-8, IL-10, tumor necrosis factor-α (TNFα), and C-C motif chemokine ligand CCL2 measured using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Median [IQR] ICH and IVH volumes at baseline (T0) were 19.8 [5.8–48.8] and 14.3 [5.3–38] mL respectively. Mean levels of IL-1β, IL-6, IL-10, TNF-α, and CCL2 peaked early compared to day 9–10 (p < 0.05) and decreased across subsequent time periods. Levels of IL-1β, IL-6, IL-8, IL-10, and CCL2 had positive correlations with IVH volume at days 3–8 whereas positive correlations with ICH volume occurred earlier at day 1–2. Significant correlations were found with PHE volume for IL-6, IL-10 and CCL2 at day 1–2 and with relative PHE at days 7–8 or 9–10 for IL-1β, IL-6, IL-8, and IL-10. Time trends of CSF cytokines support experimental data suggesting association of cerebral inflammatory responses with ICH/IVH severity. Pro-inflammatory markers are potential targets for injury reduction

Understanding Urban Demand for Wild Meat in Vietnam: Implications for Conservation Actions

Vietnam is a significant consumer of wildlife, particularly wild meat, in urban restaurant settings. To meet this demand, poaching of wildlife is widespread, threatening regional and international biodiversity. Previous interventions to tackle illegal and potentially unsustainable consumption of wild meat in Vietnam have generally focused on limiting supply. While critical, they have been impeded by a lack of resources, the presence of increasingly organised criminal networks and corruption. Attention is, therefore, turning to the consumer, but a paucity of research investigating consumer demand for wild meat will impede the creation of effective consumer-centred interventions. Here we used a mixed-methods research approach comprising a hypothetical choice modelling survey and qualitative interviews to explore the drivers of wild meat consumption and consumer preferences among residents of Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. Our findings indicate that demand for wild meat is heterogeneous and highly context specific. Wild-sourced, rare, and expensive wild meat-types are eaten by those situated towards the top of the societal hierarchy to convey wealth and status and are commonly consumed in lucrative business contexts. Cheaper, legal and farmed substitutes for wild-sourced meats are also consumed, but typically in more casual consumption or social drinking settings. We explore the implications of our results for current conservation interventions in Vietnam that attempt to tackle illegal and potentially unsustainable trade in and consumption of wild meat and detail how our research informs future consumer-centric conservation actions

Thrombolytic removal of intraventricular haemorrhage in treatment of severe stroke: results of the randomised, multicentre, multiregion, placebo-controlled CLEAR III trial

Background: Intraventricular haemorrhage is a subtype of intracerebral haemorrhage, with 50% mortality and serious disability for survivors. We aimed to test whether attempting to remove intraventricular haemorrhage with alteplase versus saline irrigation improved functional outcome. Methods: In this randomised, double-blinded, placebo-controlled, multiregional trial (CLEAR III), participants with a routinely placed extraventricular drain, in the intensive care unit with stable, non-traumatic intracerebral haemorrhage volume less than 30 mL, intraventricular haemorrhage obstructing the 3rd or 4th ventricles, and no underlying pathology were adaptively randomly assigned (1:1), via a web-based system to receive up to 12 doses, 8 h apart of 1 mg of alteplase or 0·9% saline via the extraventricular drain. The treating physician, clinical research staff, and participants were masked to treatment assignment. CT scans were obtained every 24 h throughout dosing. The primary efficacy outcome was good functional outcome, defined as a modified Rankin Scale score (mRS) of 3 or less at 180 days per central adjudication by blinded evaluators. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT00784134. Findings: Between Sept 18, 2009, and Jan 13, 2015, 500 patients were randomised: 249 to the alteplase group and 251 to the saline group. 180-day follow-up data were available for analysis from 246 of 249 participants in the alteplase group and 245 of 251 participants in the placebo group. The primary efficacy outcome was similar in each group (good outcome in alteplase group 48% vs saline 45%; risk ratio [RR] 1·06 [95% CI 0·88–1·28; p=0·554]). A difference of 3·5% (RR 1·08 [95% CI 0·90–1·29], p=0·420) was found after adjustment for intraventricular haemorrhage size and thalamic intracerebral haemorrhage. At 180 days, the treatment group had lower case fatality (46 [18%] vs saline 73 [29%], hazard ratio 0·60 [95% CI 0·41–0·86], p=0·006), but a greater proportion with mRS 5 (42 [17%] vs 21 [9%]; RR 1·99 [95% CI 1·22–3·26], p=0·007). Ventriculitis (17 [7%] alteplase vs 31 [12%] saline; RR 0·55 [95% CI 0·31–0·97], p=0·048) and serious adverse events (114 [46%] alteplase vs 151 [60%] saline; RR 0·76 [95% CI 0·64–0·90], p=0·002) were less frequent with alteplase treatment. Symptomatic bleeding (six [2%] in the alteplase group vs five [2%] in the saline group; RR 1·21 [95% CI 0·37–3·91], p=0·771) was similar. Interpretation: In patients with intraventricular haemorrhage and a routine extraventricular drain, irrigation with alteplase did not substantially improve functional outcomes at the mRS 3 cutoff compared with irrigation with saline. Protocol-based use of alteplase with extraventricular drain seems safe. Future investigation is needed to determine whether a greater frequency of complete intraventricular haemorrhage removal via alteplase produces gains in functional status

Bostonia: The Boston University Alumni Magazine. Volume 10

Founded in 1900, Bostonia magazine is Boston University's main alumni publication, which covers alumni and student life, as well as university activities, events, and programs